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The Weekly Tone

I celebrated Christmas last year quietly in my Chicago loft, having gone from a relatively anonymous entrepreneur to a rapidly-growing TikTok star in about six months. When I posted a video of my diamond-scored and orange-zested Christmas goose that had to be roasted for god-knows-how-long, a Top Chef (from the Bravo Series) DM'd me to scold my knife skills (thanks, Chef!). I remember when nobody paid attention.

And for niche financial humor (rather than dropping buckets on peoples' heads in The Home Depot), that's saying something. When the goose leftovers ran out, I flew to Istanbul to celebrate the New Year and was greeted by Squad in Turkey the moment I stepped off the plane and began hunting for a SIM card on Istiklal Street.

I got drunk for two days and then got back to work. I've been working ever since.

I began to realize around this time, in-between Turkish coffee and baklava breaks, that life, as it was (or used to be), would never be the same again. Not because I'm stupid or conceited enough to think that social media fame is everlasting and profound. It's fickle and flimsy. But because I immediately began to do all the things I ever wanted to do in my life quietly in the background. In other words, I started to fill in the space that the world cleared open for me. And unlike the next social media trend, no one can take these things away from me. I started to believe in myself.

Up until this year, I always solved half an equation. I'd been wealthy before, but I'd never been fulfilled. I knew I was relatively intelligent but didn't continue to expand my potential and work smarter. Simply, I never saw the plasticity of the world around me until now. If I want something, I know I can get it. I just need to figure out how. The equation is starting to balance out. I'm still ravenous for more.

But here's the thing: I could have done all of this without social media. Ironically, posting online just created a massive mirror for me to see myself in high definition. I began to see myself for who I could be. You don't need TikTok for that.

Yesterday, I enjoyed Christmas morning with my family. I know what I have to do for next year in calm confidence to keep this so-called party going. This week, I'll tie-up the remaining loose ends from 2022.

So, let me hand over my cheat sheet from a crazy year. This is likely something I'll continue next week as well. You might find something in these notes that inspire you:

• Iterate on your idea until you begin to draw a crowd (or customers)

• Move on from the things that aren't working, no matter how clever they are, as quickly as possible

• Pause to ask yourself better questions; enjoy better answers

• Realize that money is meaningless until it's put into motion (investing in yourself or something else)

• Understand that reality is neutral, it's your belief that colors it

• Think bigger, but make sure you actually want the thing you're chasing

• Leave more room in your day for randomness (chance encounters, flirtation, learning)

• Spend more freely on things that make life measurably easier, ruthlessly cut spending on things that don't

• Realize that the more you obsessively desire something out of grasp, the more you subconsciously believe that the thing is difficult to get

• Internalize that you can't go it alone, and surround yourself with good people

• Catalogue situations where you're engaged and situations where you're bored

• Pay more attention to what's actually happening

In 2023 (don't worry there's a Journal next week too), things will just get better. For you and for me.

I'm working on all the things that are painful or unscalable. I'm facing my dragons. For the Journal's sake, that means bringing on great writers and analysts who can dive deeper into topics that interest me but deserve more research hours that I can't spare.

Excitingly, the podcast format that I've been working on in stealth mode (I test everything before I build it), will be coming to life in the next few weeks. That means you don't just have to hear from me, but rather, from the best and brightest entrepreneurs I can find. The evolution continues. I can promise you that there's more to learn together.

So, while I wish that Santa brought you exactly what you wanted this year, I hope there's still something you didn't get, something still on the horizon, so you can join me in this beautiful race to get exactly what we want before we die.

I'm not taking meetings this week for year-end.

Assets: Where's the Safe Money?

by Wil D., Investment Analyst

Summary: Why now is the best time to be buying the market.

Nearly every historical indicator shows that 2022 was one of the worst years for stocks. If you have a 5+ year time horizon, you should read that sentence to say, “Every historical indicator of the stock market shows that 2022 is one of the best years to invest in the stock market”. The opportunity to invest in market-diversified products becomes more valuable as the market cap falls and your personal investment timeline increases.

If you read this Journal - you should already be thinking longterm by now.

The three points you need to know:

• Adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 has returned over 808% since 1928.

• Since 1928, the S&P 500 has never been negative more than 4 years in a row and 10 year US Treasuries have never been negative more than 2 consecutive years.

• Any given year, the very large majority of financial advisors, hedge funds, and mutual funds don’t beat the market.

What do those points actually mean? Well…

The market doesn’t lose over a longer time horizon, plain and simple. Every year longer your timeline becomes, the more certain a positive outcome. Einstein coined the phrase, “Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world” for a reason, give it enough time, and perpetually reinvesting returns will cause a portfolio to go parabolic.

With most financial advisors, hedge funds, and mutual funds losing out to the S&P anyway, the likelihood the average joe will beat it stock-picking is slim.

With an inflation-adjusted annual return of 8.48%, the S&P 500 is a clear winner, in the long term, for the "average joe"--most of us are the average of average joes when it comes to the market, even if we don’t want to believe it.

So, save (the opposite of spend) a few bucks today, be patient, and the market will reward you in the long-run.

*This isn't investment advice.

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